Journal of University of Science and Technology of China ›› 2020, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (2): 132-139.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.02.008

• Original Paper • Previous Articles     Next Articles

A multi-stage infectious disease model on the complete graph

FU Shunan, LIAO Hongyi, NIE Jiaxin   

  1. School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2019-01-23 Revised:2019-05-21 Accepted:2019-05-21 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2019-05-21

Abstract: The classical contact process is an interactive particle system model based on the complete graph Cn of n points. This is a continuous-time Markov process with state space{0,1}Cn, which explores the survival of two-stage disease spread at a certain rate on the graph. However, particles in the model may have more than two states. To this end, a multi-stage infectious disease model with a propagation rate of λn(λ>0) was considered, its future trends under long-term effects was studied. And the critical value λc(λc>0) was explored, so that when λ>λc, the infectious disease survives with a high probability within the exponential time eCn; when λ<λc, the infectious disease extincts with a high probability within the logarithmic time Clnn.

Key words: complete graph, contact process, multi-stage, critical value

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