Population aging, technological progress and economic growth:A research based on the PSTR model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.02.016

Abstract

Abstract: Using an endogenous growth framework containing the R&D sector, a theoretical model of population aging and technological progress acting on economic growth was constructed. The results of numerical simulation show that aging has a non-linear inhibitory effect on economic growth. Aiming at reflecting the dynamic influence of aging on economic growth, provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2015 was used to carry out empirical tests with panel smooth transition regression(PSTR) model. The results show that with technological progress as a conversion variable, the negative impact of aging rate on economic growth is smoothed with the improvement of technological progress level, which is characterized as a gradual weakening of nonlinear inhibition. In order to improve the robustness of the conclusion, the elderly dependency ratio was taken as an alternative variable of the aging rate, the robustness test still supports the benchmark test results. In order to eliminate the effect of bidirectional causality between economic growth and population aging, the joint equation model was constructed and the test results are consistent with those of the PSTR model.

Key words: population aging, technological progress, economic growth, PSTR model

CLC Number:

F061.2

HE Jun, ZHANG Yue, TANG Shuyi. Population aging, technological progress and economic growth:A research based on the PSTR model[J]. Journal of University of Science and Technology of China, 2020, 50(2): 208-219.

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