中国科学技术大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (2): 132-139.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.02.008

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

一种完全图上的多阶段传染病模型

符书楠,廖红怡,聂嘉欣   

  1. 北京交通大学理学院,北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-23 修回日期:2019-05-21 接受日期:2019-05-21 出版日期:2020-02-28 发布日期:2019-05-21
  • 通讯作者: 廖红怡
  • 作者简介:符书楠,女,1998年生,本科生.研究方向:统计学.E-mail:16271216@bjtu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    北京交通大学大学生创新训练项目(180170018)资助.

A multi-stage infectious disease model on the complete graph

FU Shunan, LIAO Hongyi, NIE Jiaxin   

  1. School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2019-01-23 Revised:2019-05-21 Accepted:2019-05-21 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2019-05-21

摘要: 经典接触过程是一种建立在n个点的完全图Cn上的相互作用粒子系统模型. 这是一个具有状态空间{0,1}Cn的连续时间马尔可夫过程,探究的是图上以一定速率传播的两阶段疾病的存活情况.然而模型中的粒子可能不止有“健康”和“全感染”两种状态. 为此,考虑传播速率为λn(λ>0)的多阶段传染病模型,研究其在长时间效应下未来趋势的变化. 探索λ的相变临界值λc(λc>0),使得当λ>λc时,传染病在指数时间eCn内以高概率存活;当λ<λc时,传染病在对数时间Clnn内以高概率灭绝.

关键词: 完全图, 接触过程, 多阶段, 相变临界值

Abstract: The classical contact process is an interactive particle system model based on the complete graph Cn of n points. This is a continuous-time Markov process with state space{0,1}Cn, which explores the survival of two-stage disease spread at a certain rate on the graph. However, particles in the model may have more than two states. To this end, a multi-stage infectious disease model with a propagation rate of λn(λ>0) was considered, its future trends under long-term effects was studied. And the critical value λc(λc>0) was explored, so that when λ>λc, the infectious disease survives with a high probability within the exponential time eCn; when λ<λc, the infectious disease extincts with a high probability within the logarithmic time Clnn.

Key words: complete graph, contact process, multi-stage, critical value

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