Abstract: The effects due to uncertainties associated with fire growth rate and maximum heat release rate (HRR) on available safe egress time (ASET) were analyzed using the Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The smoke layer height and temperature were employed as tenability critical criteria, and ASET was calculated by ASET-B model. The results indicate that the effect due to uncertainty associated with maximum HRR on ASET is more significant when the maximum ranges from 0MW to 1MW. For values between 1 MW and 4 MW, a greater effect from fire growth rate than maximum HRR is evident on ASET. When the uncertainty of maximum HRR ranging from 4 MW to 8 MW is considered alone, ASET is a deterministic rather than stochastic value. The uncertainty of ASET is propagated by fire growth rate.

Key words: fire growth rate, maximum heat release rate, available safety egress time, Latin hypercube sampling