中国科学技术大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (4): 389-395.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.04.001

• 论著 •    下一篇

方差变点的加权累积和估计的极限性质

房炜杰,金百锁   

  1. 中国科学技术大学管理学院统计与金融系,安徽合肥 230026
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-25 修回日期:2020-02-20 接受日期:2020-02-20 出版日期:2020-04-30 发布日期:2020-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 金百锁
  • 作者简介:房炜杰,男,1995年生,硕士.研究方向:方差变点. E-mail:fwj007@mail.ustc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(11571337,71873128),国家自然科学基金重点项目(71631006) 资助.

Limit properties of weighted cumulative sum estimator of change-point in variance

FANG Weijie, JIN Baisuo   

  1. Department of Statistics and Finance,School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
  • Received:2019-10-25 Revised:2020-02-20 Accepted:2020-02-20 Online:2020-04-30 Published:2020-02-20

摘要: 研究了方差变点的加权累积和估计的一些极限性质. 证明了这个估计量的相合性和收敛速度, 并由此推导出了变点估计量在局部对立假设下的渐近分布的形式, 它是一个有偏移的双边布朗运动. 通过渐近分布的数值解可以构造出估计量的渐近置信区间. 计算机模拟和实际数据分析表明, 这个估计量在应用中有很好的表现.

关键词: 方差变点, 相合性, 收敛速度, 渐近分布

Abstract: Some limit properties of the weighted cumulative sum(WCS) estimator for the change-point in variance was studied. The consistency and convergence rate of the estimator were proved. In addition, the asymptotic distribution of the change-point estimator under local alternative hypothesis, which was a two-side Brownian motion with a drift, was developed. By the numerical solution of asymmetric distribution, an asymptotic confidence interval was constructed. Simulation results and a real data example show that the proposed estimator has a good performance in the application.

Key words: change-point in variance, consistency, convergence rate, asymptotic distribution

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